Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Oct 27 2026
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271439 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 800 AM MST Tue Oct 27 2026 ...VANCE IS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 107.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Vance could become a post-tropical cyclone during this time if it is unable to sustain organized convection. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southern, southwestern, and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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