WPC Frontal Systems Short Term Forecast

The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

FXUS01 KWBC 262006
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 27 2024 - 00Z Mon Jul 29 2024

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
the South this evening with a risk for flash flooding in the
coastal Carolinas, southern Lower Mississippi Valley, and
southeastern Texas...

...Hot weather is in store across portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest before a cold front brings the risk of severe
thunderstorms on Saturday and heavy downpours on Sunday...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue for portions of the
Intermountain West with isolated flash flooding possible...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions
of the South this evening, particularly for the coastal Carolinas,
the southern Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastern Texas.
These showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy to
locally intense downpours given plentiful moisture and several
disturbances in place. Heavy rain combined with wet antecedent
conditions from previous rainfall will increase the risk for
scattered instances of flash flooding. As a result, the
aforementioned areas continue to be highlighted by a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4). An isolated to scattered threat
for flash flooding will exist more broadly across the region on
Saturday, though southeast Texas will again be a focus for more
concentrated heavy rainfall. By Sunday, the risk for downpours and
potential flash flooding concerns shifts to the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys to round out the weekend.

A cold front will advance across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Saturday, bringing the potential for scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will soar well into the 90s, with humidity
making it feel even hotter. The hot and humid weather will set the
stage with plenty of fuel for storms to work with. The increasing
instability along with the arrival of stronger winds aloft is
expected to produce at least a few intense thunderstorms. As a
result, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) for portions of northwestern Minnesota
and eastern North Dakota, with large hail and damaging winds the
greatest threats. The cold front slows down on Sunday, which may
allow showers and thunderstorms to evolve into more of a heavy
rain and flash flooding threat across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest.

Monsoonal showers will continue across portions of the
Intermountain West on Saturday, particularly from the Southwest
north through the Rockies and central Great Basin. Deep moisture
lingering through the area will bring the threat for some locally
intense downpours. Isolated instances of flash flooding will
remain possible, particularly for terrain sensitive areas such as
burn scars. Forecast highs across the West will generally be below
average with an upper-level trough overhead, with highs in the 80s
and 90s across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and
interior California, and 60s and 70s along the Pacific Coast. The
Desert Southwest will be much hotter, with highs in the low to
mid-110s. The hot weather and dry conditions outside of monsoonal
storms will continue to foster fire weather concerns across
portions of the West, with smoke from wildfires resulting in
continued unhealthy air quality.

Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is in store from the Midwest to the
Northeast with high pressure in control. Forecast highs will warm
up a bit more each day through the weekend, reaching into the
mid-to upper 80s.

Miller/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$

• NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
• NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
• NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.