WPC Frontal Systems Short Term Forecast

The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

FXUS01 KWBC 141950
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 15 2026 - 00Z Fri Jul 17 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest while spreading into the Northeast today, and
reaching into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...Significant heavy rainfall likely from the Hill Country to the
Big Bend regions of Texas...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms develop across the interior
western U.S...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across northern New
England...

The persistent upper-level high and ongoing heatwave will continue
to build eastward through the northern states and toward the East
Coast. This weather pattern will prolong the heat and humidity
across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes where high
temperatures ranging from 95 to 105 will break some daily high
temperature records this afternoon.  A cold front trailing from a
deepening cyclone across eastern Canada will bring some cooler and
drier air into the U.S.-Canadian border and keep the temperatures
barely under record levels by Wednesday across the Northern
Plains. Upper 90s is forecast to spread across New England today
before reaching farther south into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday
when triple digit high temperatures are possible.  Extreme Heat
Warnings remain in effect across a large portion of the Great
Basin through the Northern Plains as Heat Advisories and some
Extreme Heat Warnings are posted for areas farther east into
Northeast.  If you will be situated within any of these areas
forecast to experience extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks, and limit outdoor activities if possible.  Severe
thunderstorms are possible today across northern New England as
the cold front approaches.  Cooler air will penetrate deeper into
New England by Thursday morning under gusty westerly winds behind
the cold front.

A nearly stationary front will also be sprawled from the Southern
Plains to the Southeast during this period. Upper-level
disturbances will likely interact with the wavy frontal boundary
to produce repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the
southern states.  Near the western end of the front, a significant
heavy rainfall event is forecast to linger across the Texas Hill
Country and Big Bend over the next three days as clusters of
thunderstorms could mutually amplify the smaller scale upper-level
disturbances to further enhance rainfall over this region under a
slow-moving weather pattern.  The latest rainfall forecast calls
for storm total rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ inches
possible over then next couple of days, which could lead to
dangerous flash flooding as soils in the area become increasingly
inundated. 

Meanwhile, the forecast remains on track for an influx of
monsoonal moisture to drive an uptick in late-day to early-evening
thunderstorms over much of the Great Basin, Four Corners, and
Intermountain West.  Late-day thunderstorms are also forecast from
the Deep South to the Southeast near the stationary front.  A few
instances of flash flooding and severe weather are possible in the
strongest storms through midweek.

Campbell/Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$

• NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
• NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
• NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.