The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Term Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Range Forecast Discussion

FXUS01 KWBC 140749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 16 2024

...Severe thunderstorms possible over interior portions of the
Northeast on Sunday...

...Lingering locally heavy showers and moderate to heavy snow in
California Sunday...

...Intensifying storm system over the Plains to bring the threat
of severe weather Monday...

...Well above average temperatures across the central/eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday....

An upper-level shortwave/surface frontal system dropping southeast
through the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley/Interior
Northeast Sunday will bring a renewed chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Strong wind fields overlapping a southward moving
cold front from central Ohio east into Pennsylvania will lead to
some supercell structures and potentially a developing line of
more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) for the threat of
some damaging wind gusts with these storms, along with a few
instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Some locally
heavy downpours will also be possible, and wet antecedent
conditions through the terrain of the Appalachians could lead to
an isolated risk of some flash flooding across this region as
well. Storm chances should quickly diminish overnight Monday as
the frontal system pushes southeastward off the East Coast.

A deep upper-level low and associated surface frontal system over
the West will continue to progress eastward during the day Sunday.
A few areas of heightened precipitation will continue under the
influence of the low, particularly for portions of southern
Oregon/northern California and southern California. Moderate to
locally heavy lower elevation coastal/valley rain showers,
including some thunderstorms, are expected. Moist onshore/upslope
flow along the Transverse Ranges of southern California may lead
to a couple inches of rain on top of wet antecedent soils from
Saturday's rainfall, with an isolated threat for flooding. Higher
elevation mountain snow will also continue in California, with a
few more inches of accumulations forecast for the Sierra Nevada.
Precipiation chances will spread further inland with the system
with some lower elevation valley rain and higher elevation snow
possible for the northern Rockies and central Great Basin Sunday
evening, continuing into Monday for the Great Basin and spreading
into the central Rockies. Some moderate snow accumulations will be
possible for the higher mountain elevations here as well.

As the system spreads into the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help
to deepen the surface low pressure system, with intensifying moist
southerly flow from the Gulf leading to widespread shower and
thunderstorm development by Monday evening. This will be most
likely for upslope portions of the northern/central High Plains
northwest of the low, along the arcing cold front south across the
central/southern Plains, and eastward along a warm front into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Strong buoyancy and strengthening low
to upper-level flow will lead to the threat of severe
thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad
Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) across the
central/Southern Plains for the threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been
included over western Oklahoma/northwest Texas where a locally
higher risk for very large hail exists. While storms will tend to
be rather progressive, especially with southern extent along the
cold front, the influx of higher moisture may be enough for some
locally heavier downpours and an attendant isolated risk for flash
flooding. The storms will continue to progress eastward into the
Midwest and Mississippi Valley overnight Monday and into the day
Tuesday, just beyond the current forecast period.

A broad area of well above average temperatures will continue
across the central/eastern U.S. Sunday and Monday as ridging leads
the approaching system over the West. Highs from the
central/southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into
the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast will be into the 80s. Some 90s will
even be possible Sunday over the central/southern High Plains.
Unfortunately, strengthening winds with the intensifying system
over the Plains on top of dry conditions behind a surface dryline
through the central/southern Plains has prompted a Critical Risk
of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for
portions of the central/southern High Plains Monday. Conditions
will also be warm along the northern tier as well, with 60s and
70s from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Cooler
temperatures will prevail over most of the West under the
influence of the upper-low and following cold frontal passage,
with 50s and 60s over California Sunday spreading further into the
Great Basin Monday. Highs in the Desert Southwest will generally
be in the 70s. Warmer temperatures will arc northwest into the
Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies Sunday, with highs in the 60s
and 70s, though cooler temperatures will also follow here Monday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$




Depicted Weather Types

  • NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.