WPC Frontal Systems Short Term Forecast

The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

FXUS01 KWBC 270708
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024

...A very active weekend in store for parts of the Central U.S....

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather concerns from Southern
Plains to Mississippi Valley...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High
Plains...

...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift
from the Four Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains...


A highly amplified and slow-moving upper-level pattern will
support a very active period across the Central U.S. this weekend.
Today, thunderstorms will develop along a cold front and dryline
extending north-south across the Southern Plains and along a
quasi-stationary front draped across the Middle Mississippi Valley
and into the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of
the Southern/Central Plains, where large hail, damaging winds and
multiple tornadoes will be possible. Some of these storms may
produce intense rainfall rates at times, which could cause flash
flooding of roads, underpasses and urban areas. There's a Moderate
Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley today. Gusty winds and very low dew points will
support fire weather concerns on the western side of the
aforementioned dry-line. The Storm Prediction Center issued a
Critical Risk of Fires over much of the Southern High Plains as a
result.

The focus for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Storms will expand in
coverage into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and a few
tornadoes from east Texas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some
of these storms may be capable of wringing out several inches of
rain over vulnerable surfaces--from today's storms. Thus, another
Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
for the ArkLaTex on Sunday. Continued dry and windy conditions
over the southern periphery of the slow-moving upper trough axis
will support another Critical Fire Weather day across much of the
Southern High Plains on Sunday.

Meanwhile, cold continental air will pour into the Rockies on the
backside of the amplified upper trough and interact with Pacific
and Gulf moisture to produce heavy snow over portions of the
Colorado Rockies today. Snowfall totals of 8-12 inches are likely
with isolated higher amounts possible over higher elevations.
Cooler air spreads east into the Northern Plains on Sunday behind
the ascendant and negatively tilting upper trough trudging through
the Plains. Strong southerly flow into the Mississippi Valley and
Midwest today will see high temperatures climb into the 70s and
80s, which is well above average for some places. Cool and cloudy
conditions over the Mid-Atlantic today should give way to the
warmer conditions on Sunday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$

• NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
• NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
• NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.