The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Term Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Range Forecast Discussion

FXUS01 KWBC 130800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 13 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 15 2026

...Unsettled weather moves from the West into the Plains...

...Record breaking warmth set to wane later this week...

A closed low barreling towards the Four Corners will maintain cool
and wet weather for the next 48 hours along and west of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will
shift into the Heartland as the system and a ridge in the Gulf
funnel unstable air northward toward a slow-moving frontal
boundary. This pattern will support several days of heavy rainfall
and scattered flash flooding from the Corn Belt to the Texas Big
Bend, where storm total rainfall could exceed 2-4" of rain through
Thursday. Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are also possible today
from Kansas City to Lubbock. Farther east, the front should be
more progressive, with a developing low pressure wave bringing
soaking rain and some elevation snowfall today in New England.  

Temperature-wise, unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more
days across the Midwest and Southeast where several daily record
highs could fall. This stands in stark contrast to the West, where
numerous first freezes are occurring this morning. By the end of
the workweek, however, fall-like weather will descend over much of
the Central U.S. as reinforcing cold air from Canada arrives and
accelerates the slow moving front southward. 

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






$$

Depicted Weather Types

  • NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.