The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.
Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop
Short Range Forecast Discussion
FXUS01 KWBC 151826 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 225 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 00Z Sat May 16 2026 - 00Z Mon May 18 2026 ...Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across much of Iowa with a slight risk extending down to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... ...Next round of strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for the northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning... ...Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled weather spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies... A nearly stationary front extending across the midsection of he country will be the focus for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the next couple of days. A weak warm front will lift northward into the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Friday evening into Saturday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. Thunderstorms could also become severe farther southwest across the central Plains to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Therefore, Storm Prediction Center has issued a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across Iowa and Slight Risk across parts of Upper Midwest and central/southern Plains through Saturday morning. On Saturday, the enhanced severe weather threat develops across parts of northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas as two frontal boundaries move into central Great Basin/Central Plains into Great Lakes. Across the west, a shortwave trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest bringing unsettled weather. Expect lower elevation showers and a chance for some embedded thunderstorms with high elevation snow through Saturday. As the frontal system moves into the Northern Rockies/Plains, chances for showers and thunderstorms develop along the front. In addition, there will be a chance for high elevation snow/mixed precipiation further inland over the northern Rockies early on Sunday. Winds will be gusty as a low pressure system begins to expand and develop over the northern and central High Plains early on Sunday. The frontal system will also expand the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains Saturday night, reaching into the upper Midwest early on Sunday. Under a upper-level ridge, above normal temperatures will continue for central and eastern U.S. through much of the weekend with highs between 80s across much of the eastern U.S. on Saturday and rising to 90s on Sunday, while central U.S. will see mostly 90s through the weekend. On Monday, below normal temperatures across the northwest will spread eastward into north-central U.S. bringing 15-20 degrees below average highs across the area. Oudit/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$
Depicted Weather Types
- NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
- NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.  Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
- NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe)Â – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.