Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;007811
AXNT20 KNHC 130608
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving 
westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the 
wave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately 
within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous 
moderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N 
between 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions 
appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this
system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further
development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue for the next day or two across western portions of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the 
system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a 
low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, 
and through next 7 days.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to
11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See 
information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W
to the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb
high is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which
is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern
half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W
of 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching
4 ft. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through 
Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the 
north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas 
from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes 
and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
Fri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat 
night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow 
the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico 
between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent
waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A
middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over
the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the
surface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola.
Otherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with
low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure
gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker
trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds
offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be 
active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated 
with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central 
Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of
the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 
moderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean, 
then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds 
north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas
where it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from
29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it
to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near
26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge 
with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to
27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and
continues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near
39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W,
winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected
to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving
east tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second 
reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W 
Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A 
stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by 
late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
Ramos