Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT.
AXNT20 KNHC 232234

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave 48W, from 16N southward, moving at
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from
07N to 10N between 48W and 52W. 

A tropical wave previously in the far western Caribbean is moving
into Central America and adjacent portions of the eastern Pacific
along 89W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Convection associated with this
wave has exited the basin. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N30W to 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N50W to 
09N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 07N
to 11N between 25W and 30W and from 07N to 11N between 34W and
40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N
between 57W and 61W. 


A trough extends from near 29N86W to 24N92W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted in the basin along and N of
this trough. Elsewhere, the axis of a high pressure centered well
NE of the area extends into eastern basin, suppressing significant

Mainly gentle southerly winds dominate, but moderate mostly SE
winds dominate both the far western and far SE basin, including
the Florida Straits. Also, the northern extent of a tropical wave
is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, leading to fresh to locally
strong winds over waters near the northern and west coasts. Seas
are 2 ft or less in the NE Gulf of Mexico, 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf of 
Mexico through the forecast period sustaining gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night 
off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and 
tstms are forecast to prevail over the western Gulf waters through
Wed morning due to a favorable upper-level pattern and abundant 
moisture inflow from the Caribbean. 


Scattered moderate convection is crossing the Windward Islands and
into the far SE basin offshore Venezuela. This is in association
with an approaching tropical wave that is described in the section
above. The eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough
extends along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this feature extends S of 12N.

Fresh to strong trades dominate the central Caribbean and 
Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds in the east and SW,
as well as the Gulf of Honduras. In the NW Caribbean gentle to
moderate E winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central and SW
Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the
east and 3 to 5 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the 
eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will 
remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW 
basin Sat and Sun. Seas across the basin will be moderate to 
locally rough through the forecast period, higher in the central 
Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds 
are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night 
under the influence of the ridge.


A surface trough extends along 61W from 20N to 25N, but is
producing little sensible weather. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores
High dominates much of the basin, leaving the only convection
associated with tropical waves, the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ,
all described in the sections above. The pressure gradient between
these features and the aforementioned high is leading to moderate
to fresh trades for most of the waters S of 28N, with gentle winds
to the N. Strong winds are ongoing offshore the north coast of
Hispaniola and in and near the Windward Passage. In the far
eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, fresh to
strong NE winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the
basin, with lower seas of 3 to 5 ft closer to 31N and 4 to 6 ft S
of 10N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. 
Under this pressure gradient moderate to fresh E to SE winds will 
continue south of 27N through Thu morning, then diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds the remainder forecast period. However, 
easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over 
northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong 
through most of the forecast period.