Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;776673
AXNT20 KNHC 071624
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin 
through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region 
will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds 
tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, 
building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of 
gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 24W, extending from 06N to 19N, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 12N e of 18W to the coast of W Africa. Similar convective 
activity is from 09N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 41W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 56W, 
extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 10N 
between 56W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
westward to near 11N40W. The ITCZ extends continues from 10N43W 
to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted 
elsewhere. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W extends
a ridge westward across Florida into the Gulf region. Under this 
weather pattern, a gentle to locally moderate wind flow prevail. 
Slight to moderate seas are noted, with the highest seas in the 
central Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms continue to 
flare-up over parts of Florida, the Straits of Florida and the E 
Gulf, mainly E of 87W. Similar convective activity is noted in the
Veracruz area. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, 
are observed elsewhere. An upper-level low, currently located over
the western Gulf, is helping to induce convection over most of the
basin.
 
For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate
across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh
winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure located NW 
of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support 
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate
to locally fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to
locally moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally
moderate with these latter winds. An upper-level low spinning just
south of Haiti and Jamaica is supporting scattered showers and 
tstms between Cuba and Jamaica as well as over the Cayman Islands 
and surrounding waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted 
in the SW Caribbean offshore western Panama and Costa Rica. Trade 
wind showers dominate the remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, 
the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase
the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to 
gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will 
prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the
periods of gale-force winds. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, 
except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. 
Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic, and runs 
from 29N78W to the coast of central Cuba near 23N80W. Numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough covering
the waters N of 23N and W of 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate to rough seas are on either side of the trough axis. This
feature will shift westward across Florida today, ushering in 
deep tropical moisture. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast 
waters is under the influence of high pressure, with the main 
center of 1026 mb situated NW of Bermuda. The pressure gradient 
between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW 
Africa supports moderate to fresh winds N of 27N E of 20W, 
including the Canary Islands, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail, 
with locally fresh trades E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a westward moving surface trough 
over the northern Bahamas offshores will support showers and 
thunderstorm activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores 
through this morning before shifting west of the area tonight into
early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will
bring fresh winds and moderate seas across the Bahamas offshores 
through this afternoon. Seas may be locally rough in areas of 
stronger convection. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola 
and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, 
pulsing to strong speeds each evening as the Bermuda High shifts 
southward.

$$
GR