Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;186008
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along
27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E 
winds strong to near-gale force winds today, pulsing to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong 
to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before 
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to
14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, 
moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
observed along the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 10N between 50W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W 
to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
present from 09N to 14N east of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf 
during the past 48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, and a
weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. The 
upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in 
scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters,
N of 23N and E of 87W. These storms can produce gusty winds, 
frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should 
exercise caution across this area. This system has a medium formation
chance through 7 days. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered 
south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate NW 
winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh E winds over the 
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, a low offshore Florida will drift north over 
the next few days, bringing thunderstorms with heavy rain to the 
eastern Gulf. There is a low chance of tropical formation with 
this system. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, 
producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight. 

The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29.5N57W in the 
central Atlantic extends westward to the Bahamas, and is forcing 
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed
peak winds of 30 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 14 ft are found 
in these waters. Fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present 
in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers are 
found across the SE Caribbean waters. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low 
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force 
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the 
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening 
this weekend in the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic
supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 35W and 50W. 
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central 
Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to the Bahamas, and 
sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south
of 25N and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 52W 
and the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate 
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and
east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 
4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical 
ridge axis that extends along 27N-28N will gradually weaken and 
drift northward this weekend as a broad surface trough forms E of 
50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds 
to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings 
this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
KRV