Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;041961
AXNT20 KNHC 280843
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High in the central Atlantic and the Colombian Low 
will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to locally 
very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean for the remainder
of tonight. An OSCAT scatterometer pass at 0528 UTC reported ENE
winds of around 35 kt. At 0500 UTC, the Jason-3 altimeter observed
a large swath of seas 10-12 ft west of the peak wind region. Winds
will drop below gale this morning, but fresh to strong winds and 
rough seas will persist through at least the upcoming week.

Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 20W, south of 
16N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 05N-10N between 18W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 12N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
found from 03N-09N between 43W-53W.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60W, south of 
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 13N-18N between 56W-64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N46W and then from 06N49W and to 
04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N-18N 
between 56W-64W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Winds in the NW Gulf are moderate to fresh SE with seas 3-5 ft.
Winds in the SW Gulf are also moderate to fresh E with seas 3-5
ft. Elsewhere, winds over the E Gulf are gentle with seas 1-3 ft,
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Gulf south of
20N west of 95W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf 
through Mon. Elsewhere, ridging will support only gentle to 
moderate winds for the next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding the
on-going gale conditions for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the expected gale conditions, fresh to strong E winds
are occurring over the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong NE winds
are observed through the Windward Passage, and fresh winds to the
lee of central Cuba are noted. Seas over the Gulf of Honduras are
5-8 ft, over the Windward Passage are 4-7 ft, and in the lee of
Cuba are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, winds are moderate
or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Winds to gale-force offshore of Colombia will be diminishing 
shortly. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the 
remainder of the basin during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging along 33N combined with lower pressure over the
ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh
trades with seas 4-7 ft. Some NE strong winds are also occurring
between the Canary Islands and just offshore of S Western Sahara.
A prominent tropical upper-tropospheric trough extends from 
30N50W to 22N85W with scattered moderate convection occurring 
along the trough axis from 25N-28N between 57W-63W.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High 
will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the 
basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north 
of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the 
next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of 
the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the central 
Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is 
anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is 
expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system 
will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over 
our NW waters north of 28N.

$$
Landsea