The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 091955 SWODY1 SPC AC 091953 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made based on recent trends in observations and model guidance. ...Kansas/Nebraska... VWP observations and 18z RAOBs from Grand Junction, CO sampled a 60-70 knot speed maxima embedded within the mid-level flow at about 6 km MSL. Recent mesoanalysis estimates and model guidance appear to be under-analyzing this feature and show a more diffuse mid-level jet of around 50 knots. As this stronger flow spreads east into the Plains it will not only yield stronger deep-layer shear, but will also promote faster storm motions downstream across the central Plains. With convective initiation well underway across the High Plains of NM and CO, confidence is fairly high in the development of one or more convective bands across KS/NE later this afternoon/evening. With the expectation for stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, it appears the potential for severe gusts is just as high across north-central KS/south-central NE as it is further north/south and warrants a unification of the 30% wind probabilities. ...Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota... Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show a band of deepening cumulus within a plume of rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) through the upper Red River Valley of the North. Additionally, a subtle MCV - the remnants of prior convection over NE - is currently overspreading the region and may provide adequate forcing for ascent for initiation within the weakly capped and highly buoyant air mass this afternoon. While conditional, discrete convection that can develop within this zone could pose a tornado threat as low-level winds strengthen through the day. The 10% tornado contour was expanded eastward into western MN to better address this potential. ...Indiana/Ohio... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance suggests a semi-organized convective band may emerge across northern IN into western OH later this afternoon and into the evening hours ahead of an MCV (currently noted over central IL). Regional radars show the early stages of cluster development across central to eastern IL ahead of the MCV, which lends credibility to this scenario. However, outflow boundaries are noted ahead of some of this convection, hinting that the overall intensity of this activity may remain somewhat modest. Nonetheless, 5% wind probabilities were expanded downstream to highlight the potential for sporadic damaging winds. ..Moore.. 06/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/ ...Central and Northern Plains... Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today, with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains, although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN. General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle. A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps the realization of a discrete storm or two. ...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles... Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75 mph. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a low-probability tornado risk exists as well. $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 091722 SWODY2 SPC AC 091721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the Upper MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an intensifying low-level jet during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, providing ample support for organized convection. At the surface, a quasi-warm front/moisture gradient is noted from north-central MN into northern Lower MI in model guidance during the morning. This boundary may lift northward through the day, though some influence from the Great Lakes may maintain this gradient across northern WI/MI. Otherwise the surface cold front will be located from northwest MN into northwest KS by midday. This boundary will march eastward through the period, becoming oriented from Upper MI/central WI to southeast NE by Thursday morning. The southern extent of the front will stall over KS as a surface low deepens across the central Plains overnight in response to another upper shortwave trough ejecting over the Rockies/High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity into northeast KS... A somewhat complex scenario is evident for Wednesday, with potential for more than one round of severe storms possible for parts of the region, particularly IA/WI/IL. This complex scenario will be influence by potential remnant MCVs and outflows from Day 2/Tuesday convection persisting into Wednesday morning or migrating into the area by early afternoon ahead of the main synoptic front. Additional convection will then also be possible along the main front late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the region, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Steep lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong instability from 2000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm development will be supercells given favorable vertically veering shear profiles with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes over a large area. With time, one or more bowing clusters may develop via cold pool consolidation and linear organization along the cold front as a 40+ kt low-level jet develops by early evening. Initial large to very large hail and a strong tornado risk will accompany discrete cells. Damaging wind potential will be greater with more linear storm mode and some gusts could be greater than 75 mph with these organized linear modes. During the early evening, additional convection is expected to develop along the surface boundary from northeast KS into northwest MO and southern IA. Some forecast guidance (particularly the RAP) suggests this zone may be particularly favorable for supercell development as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts a possibly a strong tornado will be possible with this convection along the southwest extent of the surface front. Overnight, additional storms may develop across eastern NE into western IA in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough ejecting into the central High Plains after 06z. This activity will likely be elevated, but would still pose a risk for large hail and perhaps strong wind gusts. ...South-central KS into western OK and the TX Panhandle... Vertical shear will become more limited with southwest extent on Wednesday. Capping also may limit storm development/coverage into the TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, any storms that do development will likely be somewhat higher-based and pose a risk for strong outflow winds. Large to very large hail will also be possible with any longer-lived storms given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ...Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic... A weak midlevel shortwave trough will migrate across the region on Wednesday. This will result in modestly enhanced vertical shear as midlevel flow increases during peak heating. At the surface, rich boundary layer moisture will overspread the area. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F and strong heating into the 80s F will result in moderate destabilization. Morning convection may be ongoing across portions of the Delmarva vicinity, resulting in uncertainty with regards to the extent of afternoon severe potential, but at least isolated potential for strong gusts is possible from NY/PA/NJ southward into the Delmarva. ..Leitman.. 06/09/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 091920 SWODY3 SPC AC 091919 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis... A compact but potent upper shortwave trough, characterized by a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet streak, will move across the central Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. A strong low-level jet will likely be oriented across parts of MO/KS/OK Thursday morning. Some weakening of this feature will occur as it spreads northeast through the morning, but re-invigoration of the low-level jet is forecast by mid/late afternoon. At the surface, low pressure initially over central KS will develop northeast toward Lake Michigan through 00z, and cross the international border by 12z Friday. A cold front/composite outflow from prior convection is expected to be oriented from northern WI/Upper MI southwestward into northwest OK by midday. The northern extent of the boundary will progress eastward across much of the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley through the period, while the western extent stalls over OK and the TX Panhandle. ...Upper Great Lakes to Lower MO/Mid-MS and Lower Ohio Valleys... An MCS may be ongoing in the vicinity of eastern NE/southwest IA Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature and the aforementioned cold front, a very moist airmass will remain in place across the Midwest (upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints). Strong destabilization will be possible (2500-4500 J/kg). Reintensification or redevelopment of morning convection is possible as this activity encounters the instability gradient from eastern IA into northern IL and Lower MI. Favorable vertical shear profiles will support supercells and bowing segments capable of significant wind gusts, large hail (with more discrete convection), and strong tornadoes through the afternoon, centered on eastern IA, northern IL, far southern WI and perhaps as far east as southern Lower MI/northern IN. With time, additional convection will develop along the cold front from central IL into southwest MO. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it spread east/southeast across the Ozarks and toward the Lower Ohio Valley through evening. ...Southern Plains... Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain with southwest extent into OK/TX. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused further northeast, but strong instability, rich boundary layer moisture and steep lapse rates near the sagging cold front and a dryline should foster at least isolated storm development where capping can be overcome. Supercells in this environment would pose a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic... A weak disturbance is forecast to move through an upper ridge across the region, resulting in modest enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture will support moderate destabilization during the afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to isolated severe wind gusts and sporadic wind damage. ..Leitman.. 06/09/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 090841 SWOD48 SPC AC 090838 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable. Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM. ...Day 5/Saturday... The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front. Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas. ...Day 6/Sunday... The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted. ...Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday... Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised. ..Mead.. 06/09/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center