The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 100100 SWODY1 SPC AC 100058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will move inland this evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. ...DISCUSSION... The center of Hurricane Isaias is currently near the Florida coast. The primary band of rainfall is north of the Isaias' center over the western Florida Panhandle. A second rainband extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle southward along the coast of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms will continue to form within these rainbands and move northward over land this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle have strong low-level shear profiles with large looped hodographs. This will support the development of rotating storms with tornado potential, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is expected to continue through this evening into overnight period, with the threat gradually moving northward into southeast Alabama and southwestern Georgia. ..Broyles.. 10/10/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 091730 SWODY2 SPC AC 091729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate consolidation of a number of short wave perturbations into highly amplified larger-scale mid/upper troughing across much of the Pacific Coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night. It appears that this will include digging troughing within the initially stronger branch of mid-latitude westerlies along the northern U.S. Pacific coast, and consolidating troughing in a separate weaker branch across the southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific into southern California/northern Baja. Near the leading edge of this latter regime, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel may accelerate inland into the southern California Sonoran Desert vicinity by 12Z Sunday. Downstream flow is forecast to remain split, with broad mid/upper ridging forecast to generally continue to build within the stronger northern branch, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the weaker southern branch, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of Isaias, and associated upper troughing are forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin. ...Southeast... As the sheared remnants of Isaias progress further inland, the low-level circulation center is expected to eventually undergo a period of more rapid weakening. After curving north-northwestward into/through a drier/more stable environment across central Alabama, it is forecast to slowly accelerate northward/northeastward toward the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night. However, there remains rather sizable spread within/among the various model output concerning this and related developments, which will considerably impact any continuing risk for tornadoes. In general, it appears that a broad lingering belt of moderate southerly low-level flow (perhaps with embedded stronger corridors) will support a moistening sector to the east/southeast of the center, on the modifying southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal areas. This likely will include the return seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, with dew points increasing into the 70s F, which may support CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg to the east of the remnant mid-level warm core. As the upstream mid/upper troughing slowly pivots toward this environment, intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable through the afternoon into evening, mainly across Georgia and northern Florida into parts of the Carolinas. As this occurs, lingering enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs and developing near-surface buoyancy may become conducive to widely scattered low-topped supercells with potential to produce tornadoes. ...Lower Colorado Valley vicinity... Strengthening wind fields associated with the approaching tropical system, coupled with the potential for an influx of high boundary-layer moisture content off the Gulf of California, probably supports at least a conditional risk for a tornado or two late Saturday night or early Sunday, if conditions come together favorably. At this point, given model spread, this potential still seems rather low. ..Kerr.. 10/09/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 091931 SWODY3 SPC AC 091930 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms on Sunday may impact parts of the Mid Atlantic, and the lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate further consolidation of troughing within initially separate branches of the westerlies, with slow progression inland of the Pacific coast Sunday through Sunday night. Within southerly flow ahead of the evolving large-scale trough axis, remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel are forecast to rapidly advect from the southeastern California Sonoran Desert toward the western slopes of the Wasatch through the day Sunday. As downstream mid/upper ridging builds through the southeastern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that an upper trough and remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation will be forced east-northeastward across the Appalachians through Mid Atlantic. Associated forcing for ascent may support modest secondary surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Blue Ridge, southeast of the weakening remnants of Isaias across the Cumberland/Allegheny Plateau vicinity, and in the wake of weakening surface ridging shifting offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. Spread among the models remains substantive concerning the shorter wavelength perturbations, but a couple areas with at least some potential for severe thunderstorm development are evident. ...Mid Atlantic... Given the seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting northward toward the Mid Atlantic in advance of the developing surface low, there appears potential for boundary-layer destabilization coincident with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. Models suggest that a developing mid-level dry slot could provide a focus for the most substantive boundary-layer destabilization by late Sunday afternoon across parts of eastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina, where insolation prior to the onset of mid-level ascent/cooling may support a period of vigorous thunderstorm development. It appears that this could include supercell structures within an evolving broken line of storms, which may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts. ...Lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin... Boundary-layer destabilization and convective potential is more unclear along the forecast track of Rachel for Sunday. However, given the development of sufficient instability, the remnant strong south-southwesterly wind fields could provide support for organized convection, including supercell structures, posing at least a risk for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/09/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 090905 SWOD48 SPC AC 090903 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern. ...Day 4/Monday... Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area. ...Day 5/Tuesday... Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide. ...Day 6/Wednesday... As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases. ...Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday... Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system. ..Mead.. 10/09/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center