The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 051954 SWODY1 SPC AC 051952 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight. ...20z Updates... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm coverage based on trends in radar. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Halbert-E.. 11/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Broad southwesterly flow aloft is present today over the eastern states, with a moist surface air mass in place along and east of the Appalachians. Forcing will be weak through the day, but an approaching upper trough over the central US will result in increasing thunderstorm potential after dark - especially from the Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England. Strong winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but nocturnal cooling will limit surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of damaging winds. Nevertheless, an occasional storm could pose some concern for gusty winds. ...KS/OK... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated pocket of cold mid-level air will result in steep lapse rates and scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of southern KS and northern OK. $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 051654 SWODY2 SPC AC 051653 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia. ...Eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia... A belt of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Eastern Seaboard on Friday as an upper trough pivots east toward the Atlantic coast. A surface front extending from southern New England south/southwest to central GA Friday morning will likewise shift eastward through the period. Ahead of the front, mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as southeast VA. Within the warm advection regime ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the region. Coupled with associated cloud cover, daytime heating will be limited, suppressing stronger destabilization despite cooling aloft. Midlevel flow increasing to around 30-40 kt will support effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt as convection along the front moves into the moist downstream airmass across the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia. This may support organized cells/bows capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the severe risk should remain fairly isolated given expected poor low-level lapse rates and modest instability. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 051900 SWODY3 SPC AC 051859 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Saturday, in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in any appreciable boundary layer moisture being relegated to deep South TX and parts of the FL Peninsula. Thunderstorm chances will largely be negligible across most of the Lower 48 given scant boundary layer moisture and little instability. The exception may be across parts of southwest/central TX. Weak elevated instability due to cool temperatures aloft, and a warm advection regime within the 850-700 mb layer support isolated lightning flashes from elevated convection. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 050945 SWOD48 SPC AC 050944 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period. Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center