Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Advisory Number 4

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080855
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 105.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.3N 105.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 106.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS