Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

Published Date and Time: 2024-11-15 21:33:12



000
WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well 
north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the 
western side of the circulation.  Overall, the system hasn't 
changed much in satellite representation during the past several 
hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent 
with most of the estimates.

The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast 
to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents.  A 
mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on 
Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move 
slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday.  Sara is likely to 
move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change 
being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids.

While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear 
through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any 
intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind 
field and perhaps land interaction.  This seems reasonable given the 
current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change 
through landfall.  Almost all of the aids show the system decaying 
into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the 
Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance 
and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 16.2N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.3N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.6N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.0N  88.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 17.7N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/1200Z 19.2N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



Source link

Leave a Reply