Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 A couple of recent microwave overpasses indicate that Raymond's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. Images show fragmented curved bands surrounding the elongated (SE to NW) surface circulation. The cyclone may be struggling a bit due to the large deep convective complex (-82C cloud tops) located to the northwest of the center, which could be disrupting the cyclone's low-level flow. The subjective and objective technique intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis estimated the intensity to be 35 kt. Using a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The statistical-dynamical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the global models indicate that Raymond will be battling stiff easterly vertical shear during the next couple of days, which should hamper significant development. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is forecast through Friday. Afterward, an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment should result in a weakening trend through the period. Accordingly, Raymond is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday while emerging over the Gulf of California, and ultimately opening up into a trough by early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a close agreement of the FSSE, HCCA, and IVCN intensity aids. Raymond's center has been difficult to find this evening, and the initial motion is an estimated west-northwestward heading, or 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric high, anchored over northern Mexico, should steer Raymond toward the west-northwest to northwest, while paralleling and remaining just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, through Friday evening. Afterward, Raymond is forecast to turn north-northwestward, then northward in response to an amplifying mid-latitude trough moving over the southwestern United States. The various consensus models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean were used as a basis for the official track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the system. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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