Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 090856 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY NOW ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 124.9W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches will be likely be required for a portion of this area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 124.9 West. Rachel is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue, with a significant increase in forward speed over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: The risk of tropical-storm-force winds is increasing for portions of northern Baja California through extreme northwestern Mexico this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of that area later today. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and associated moisture of the system will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs
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