Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 The last available visible satellite images of Rachel showed the circulation center was still near the northern edge of the deep convective mass. The restricted outflow on the northern side of the circulation indicates that northeasterly shear continues to plague the storm. Recently, a large burst of deep convection has developed closer to the estimated center position, but the latest satellite intensity estimates do not support upgrading Rachel to a hurricane yet. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Rachel is moving northwestward (310/11 kt) on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over northern and central Mexico. A slower forward speed is expected over the next day or so as a cutoff upper-level low over the southwestern U.S. moves eastward and weakens the ridge. This upper low is forecast to lift northward on Thursday and Friday, which should allow another ridge to build in to the north of Rachel. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The updated NHC track forecast trended slightly faster than the previous one based on the latest TVCN and HCCA aids, along with a minor northward adjustment at 48-72 h following the multi-model consensus. The northeasterly shear over Rachel is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two, which should allow for a faster rate of strengthening given very warm SSTs and a moist, divergent upper-level environment. The latest DTOPS guidance shows about a 50 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h, and the NHC intensity forecast remains aggressive on the higher side of the guidance envelope with HCCA, HAFS-A, and the COAMPS-TC models. Beyond 48 h, Rachel appears likely to track near or over the cool wake left behind by Polo while encountering a drier mid-level environment. Thus, some weakening is anticipated during the latter half of the forecast period, with the NHC forecast falling in between HCCA and IVCN during this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area tonight. 2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 17.0N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 18.9N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.8N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 20.0N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 20.2N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Source link