Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025
004 WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025 Priscilla has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone this evening, despite moving over cool waters near 24C. Since the previous advisory, the system has maintained a well-defined curved band that wraps more than halfway around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of these data, along with the large area of 40-kt winds noted in a scatterometer pass earlier today and some improvement in the cyclone’s structure, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. Priscilla is moving north-northwest, or 345 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone moves between a longwave trough to its northwest and a mid- to upper-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is forecast after 24 hours as the system becomes shallower and increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of the previous advisory and the multi-model consensus aids. Priscilla will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment during the next day or so, while also encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. These factors should result in steady weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicates that Priscilla will lose its deep convection within about 12 hours, with both models showing the system degenerating into a trough by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation expected by 48 hours. Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary hazard across portions of southwestern United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico. Please monitor forecasts and updates from local National Weather Service offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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