Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222043 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection was on a positive trend until recently, when the cloud tops started to warm based on the data from infrared satellite imagery, likely due to entering the diurnal convective minimum. The latest subjective TAFB Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which is the same as the last several cycles. The objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 53-70 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is currently moving east-northeastward, or 60/3 kt. This general motion is expected to persist as a trough that is moving over the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United States should deepen further. After this, the trough will become the main steering flow for Odalys resulting in an east-northeastward or northeastward motion for the next few days. After 72 h, the uncertainty in the track increases as potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could cause Odalys to slow down later in the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous track with only a few minor adjustments and continues to be in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The cyclone is forecasted to be in an environment with weaker wind shear, plenty of mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures, and this is expected to lead to additional intensification over the next few days. Thus, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. After 48 h, Odalys will encounter a drier mid-level air mass and increased upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The current NHC intensity guidance remains on the upper end of the model guidance, but close to the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Hagen
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