Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
973 WTPZ41 KNHC 221445 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection continues to build around the center of Odalys as the cyclone improves in organization. The most recent objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49-61 kt. Meanwhile, TAFB's most recent Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which still the same as the previous cycle. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been held at 55 kt for this advisory. There is larger than normal amount of uncertainty in regards to the initial position of Odalys with this forecast due to high clouds obscuring the low-level center and an outage of satellite data this morning. The cyclone is currently moving northward, or 355/4 kt. A further decrease in forward speed is possible as the storm continues to move more northward, then east-northeastward tonight as a trough that is moving across the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United States continues to deepen. Afterwards, Odalys will be steered by the flow of the trough resulting an east-northeastward to eastward motion for the next few days. After day three, the uncertainty in the track increases due to potential interaction with Hurricane Polo, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory with only a few minor adjustments, however there is a higher degree of uncertainty with the forecast track due to the low-confidence initial position and analysis. That said, the forecast is still in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for intensification over the next few days, as the vertical wind shear should weaken slightly. In addition the cyclone will be in an environment with plenty of mid-level moisture and warm sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane with in the next day or so. Between 48 to 72 h, the storm could encounter a drier mid-level air mass and increased wind shear from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The lastest NHC intensity forecast remains on the upper end of the model guidance, but close to the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Zelinsky
Source link