Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090243 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025 Octave has regained a small area of deep convection this evening but remains highly sheared, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis indicating 23 kt of easterly shear. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is 2.5/35 kt, while a SATCON and AI-based estimate from UW-CIMSS were 39 and 40 kt, respectively. Considering a Metop-C ASCAT pass from earlier today that showed several 38-kt wind barbs, along with the redevelopment of deep convection near the center, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at a possibly generous 40 kt. Octave has accelerated since the previous advisory and is now moving east-northeastward, or 075 degrees at 15 kt. This general motion should continue tonight, taking the cyclone south of Priscilla. A turn toward the east is expected on Thursday as Octave moves toward a newly developing tropical cyclone (Invest 90E) off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Octave is forecast to open into a trough by 36 hours, if not sooner, before being absorbed into the larger circulation of 90E. The new NHC forecast track lies slightly south of the previous one and follows a blend of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the latest multi-model consensus aids. Octave’s days are numbered, with more than 30 kt of easterly vertical wind shear forecast to persist over the system during the next couple of days. The current burst of deep convection southwest of the low-level center may be its last, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, calling for Octave to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and dissipate by 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.9N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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