Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025
137 WTPZ45 KNHC 080238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Octave continues to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection, primarily across the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation due to easterly shear influencing the system. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system remains intact, though the strongest winds are now confined to the southern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range between 25 and 33 kt. Based on these data and the persistent satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 100 degrees, at around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue into early Wednesday as the storm moves along the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the U.S. West Coast and beneath the much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward several hundred miles to the northeast. A turn toward the northeast, along with some acceleration, is expected late Wednesday into Thursday as Octave moves south of Priscilla and near another developing system (EP90) to its southeast near the southwest coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain its intensity into early Wednesday before succumbing to an increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscilla’s larger circulation to the north and EP90 to its southeast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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