Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Octave remains a compact tropical cyclone, with the diameter of its central dense overcast (CDO) near 150 miles. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue near the embedded center, with cloud-top temperatures occasionally exceeding −80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are 4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 3.5/55 kt from SAB, while objective estimates are as high as 60 kt. An ASCAT-B pass at 0534 UTC depicted the small and compact system, with peak surface winds just over 50 kt and tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 60 n mi from the center. A blend of these data supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. Octave is now moving slowly north-northeastward at about 3 kt, and this motion is expected to continue today while the storm gradually turns northeastward within a weak steering pattern between an upper-level trough along the U.S. West Coast and Tropical Cyclone Priscilla, which is drifting northwestward well to the east off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Beginning Monday, Octave should turn eastward and gradually accelerate. By midweek, forecast uncertainty increases significantly as Octave becomes increasingly influenced by Priscilla’s evolution and track. The new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids, with Octave expected to dissipate by day 5 (Thursday night) as it becomes absorbed by the larger Tropical Cyclone Priscilla. Octave has intensified slightly since the previous advisory, and with the environment remaining marginally conducive for the next 12 to 18 hours, some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out. Guidance, however, generally supports the intensity holding steady during this period, which is reflected in this forecast through the day today. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, combined with the interaction with Priscilla, should induce a gradual weakening trend. Octave is forecast to open up into a trough and be absorbed by Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains close to the previous NHC advisory and near the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.6N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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