Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026
958 WTPZ43 KNHC 140838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Although Hernan remains a convection-less swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, recent synthetic aperture radar data shows that the system continues to maintain tropical storm-force winds. Thus, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt. The initial motion is 180/4 kt, with the cyclone currently being steered by a low-level ridge between it and Tropical Storm Lala to the west. During the next couple of days, Hernan should turn gradually southwestward and westward as the large-scale eastern Pacific high to the north provides a more westward steering current. There is little change in either the guidance or forecast track since the previous advisory. Hernan is expected to weaken due to a combination of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment, and the storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Friday. The latest simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the associated convection will dissipate completely between 12-24 h, and based on this premise the system is shown decaying to a remnant low at 24 h and into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 16.1N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 15.2N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 15.1N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 15.1N 140.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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