Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jul 25 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 900 AM CST Sat Jul 25 2026 Since the prior advisory, Genevieve's structure has improved, with a formative central dense overcast with cloud tops below -75 C blossoming over the estimated center. While earlier microwave imagery showed the inner core was still organizing with the bulk of the convection on its eastern flank, first light visible images suggest this convection is now wrapping around the center. TAFB provided a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt for 1200 UTC, while objective intensity estimates are a bit lower ranging from 40 to 55 kt. Favoring the higher side of these estimates yields an intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Genevieve jogged a little right of the previous forecast track, but appears to have resumed a more west-northwestward motion at 300/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged; a strong deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States extending into the Pacific should keep Genevieve on a general west-northwestward to northwestward track through the forecast period, with some gradual slowing. The track guidance aids remain in excellent agreement, and other than the initial position adjustment, the latest NHC track is quite similar to the prior one, blending the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) track guidance. Other than some light to moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear, Genevieve's environment remains quite favorable for rapid intensification (RI) with very warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs, 30 C) and sufficient deep-layer moisture. The small core of the tropical cyclone is another factor that will likely enable a rapid change in intensity. Not surprisingly, the RI indices are very high for Genevieve, over both the next 24 and 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows RI beginning later today, and the timing of peak intensity has been moved up to 48 h. After that time, SSTs begin to gradually cool, and the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance also shows a subtle increase in shear around the day 3 time frame. Genevieve will also likely be undergoing inner-core oscillations by that time that could also cause fluctuations in intensity. At the end of the forecast, Genevieve will likely be crossing the 26 C SST isotherm leading to a faster rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope; only the HCCA aid is higher. However, most of the reliable intensity models indicate Genevieve becoming a major hurricane within the 36-60 h period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 12.9N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.2N 110.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 15.5N 112.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 16.6N 113.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 17.6N 115.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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