Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
453 WTPZ42 KNHC 012032 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026 The organization of Genevieve hasn’t changed much during the past 6 h. GOES-18 daytime visible imagery indicates that the low-level center is exposed to the west of the main convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is 2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range from about 35-40 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is unchanged from 6 h ago. This general motion will continue through the end of the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of the cyclone. By Monday, a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected as the ridge weakens north of the cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that will be located to the north-northwest of Genevieve. Very little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, which lies close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). The track guidance remains tightly clustered, so there is high confidence in the track forecast. Genevieve is starting to enter cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) now, with SSTs between 24-25C. The cyclone will reach SSTs lower than 24C in about 12h. Genevieve is currently moving within an environment of weak vertical wind shear dry, stable air. Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate levels (15-20 kt) by 24 h while the environment remains dry and stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening, and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become post tropical by 36 h. Thereafter, the remnant low should gradually spin down with dissipation occurring by 96 h, as depicted by the global models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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