Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 31 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010234 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 PM HST Fri Jul 31 2026 Genevieve continues to gradually lose convection in the inner-core of the cyclone as seen in visible and infrared satellite imagery. In addition, water vapor imagery shows evidence of dry air mixing into the core. An OSCAT pass from 2043 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 40 kt. The objective intensity estimates continue to trend gradually downward, with a range of 33-50 kt, and the most recent intensity estimate from TAFB is CI 3.0/45 kt. Thus, based on all of the current given data, the initial intensity has been set to 45 kt this advisory. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that, a turn more toward the northwest is forecast due to the ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough forming to the northwest of Genevieve. While the track guidance is generally tightly clustered for the next 72 h, it is a bit slower than the previous cycle. Thus, the NHC track forecast has been slowed slightly to reflect the evolving track guidance. After 72 h, this guidance does have larger spread, though overall, only slight changes have been made to the NHC forecast compared to the previous track. The intensity forecast shows slightly more weakening than the previous forecast to reflect a storm with a lower initial intensity. However the overall trend remains the same. Genevieve is still expected to move over a small patch of warmer water with sea surface temperatures around 25C, which may temper the weakening rate over the next 24 h to 36 h. Once the cyclone has moved into a region of even cooler ocean temperatures, Genevieve is expected to become post-tropical cyclone at around 48 h. It remains possible that Genevieve could lose convective organization sooner, resulting in the storm becoming post-tropical faster than currently forecast this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 22.6N 131.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 23.9N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 24.8N 138.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/1200Z 26.8N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z 27.8N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z 30.7N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin
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