Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jul 31 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311443 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 AM HST Fri Jul 31 2026 Genevieve is mainly comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with some convective banding near the center and in the northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with most of them suggesting an intensity near 50 kt. That will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days or so. After that time, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to the ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough forming north of 20N between 140-160W. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new official forecast is again almost identical to the previous forecast. Sea surface temperature analyses indicate that Genevieve is approaching a small patch of warmer water with temperatures near 25C. This should result in a slight increase in the water temperature under the core of the cyclone for the next 18 h or so. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a pause in the weakening from 12-24 h, followed by resumed steady weakening as the system again encounters cooler water and is affected by increasing shear. The new intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 60 hr. The global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will persist for several days after the convection dissipates, and this is reflected in the forecast. It should be noted that if the convection does not persist during Genevieve's passage over the warmer water, the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.1N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 22.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 23.4N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 26.1N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 29.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 33.3N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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