Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Satellite imagery indicates little overall change in the organization of Elida during the past several hours. Deep convection persists near the center, with a convective band wrapping into the circulation over the southern semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains T3.5/55 kt, while objective UW-CIMSS intensity estimates range from 47 to 55 kt. Given the steady satellite presentation and these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. The initial motion is westward, or 275/10 kt. A strong subtropical ridge positioned north of Elida is expected to maintain this general motion through Thursday. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually turn west-northwestward Thursday night and then northwestward on Friday as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to an upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United States. The updated NHC forecast has been nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory through 72 h, then to the right thereafter, to better align with the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea-surface temperatures, deep moisture, and low vertical wind shear along the forecast track. Elida is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday night or early Friday before reaching its peak intensity on Friday. Thereafter, the cyclone will move over progressively cooler waters while encountering a drier, higher-shear environment, resulting in a steady weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. Elida is expected to lose organized convection and become post-tropical by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.6N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 18.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 19.8N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.2N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 24.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 26.6N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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