Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
844 WTPZ45 KNHC 192039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection within the inner core of Elida has weakened since the previous advisory. The convective weakening is likely in connection to the cyclone moving over the colder ocean waters. In addition, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at T3.0/55 kt, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. However, the latest ASCAT pass, while partial, did sample of peak surface winds away from the center of around 45 kt. Thus the intensity for Elida has been held at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is expected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating over the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough off the California coast. There was a slight nudge to the west with this advisory, but the track guidance maintains an overall good consistency from the last several periods. As such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC forecast track. The convection in the inner core of Elida looks less impressive than before, and this is an indication that the cyclone is starting to weaken. The system is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 degrees C, and ocean waters are expected to cool further as the system continues to move northward over the next couple days. In addition, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air should also contribute to a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low on Tuesday, with the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Source link