Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 09 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032026 300 PM CST Tue Jun 09 2026 Convection has increased today in association with Cristina, and the low-level center is now concealed under the edge of the convective overcast. This is likely due to a decrease in the northeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone. However, the convection is currently poorly organized, and most of the satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The center continues to drift erratically near the northwest coast of Nicaragua. While the future track remains uncertain, the latest track guidance is in somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will stay offshore for at least 24 h as it moves generally west-northwestward on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A subsequent more northwesterly motion would bring the center inland in about 36 h. After landfall, a northwesterly motion is expected until the system dissipates over Central America. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track through 24 h, and after that is similar to the previous track. Due to the combination of decreased shear and spending more time over water, the statistical-dynamical models suggests slight strengthening could occur during the next day or do. The new intensity forecast now shows a 40-kt intensity in 24 h, which is near the high end of the guidance. After that, Cristina is expected to weaken due to land interaction, with the cyclone forecast to dissipate over land by 60 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to impact portions of the coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 12.7N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 13.0N 88.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 14.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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