Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091440 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 100.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Friday, followed by a northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and then be near southern Baja California Sur Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the eastern part of the watch area later today and could spread westward across the remainder of the area through late Friday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from the tropical depression will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Guerrero and Michoacán. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from the tropical depression will bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with the depression, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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