Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241437 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 900 AM CST Fri Jul 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized with the area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring well offshore of southern Mexico. In addition, 0807 UTC AMSR-2 passive microwave images indicate the system has a closed low-level circulation with good definition. The current satellite presentation suggests it could be dealing with some northeasterly shear, with deep convection mostly west and southwest of the estimated center position. Since this system meets tropical cyclone criteria, we are initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt based on a T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Some scatterometer data expected later today should help refine the center position and intensity estimates. The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but this is somewhat uncertain since the depression just formed. The system should maintain a west-northwestward or northwestward heading during the next several days with a ridge entrenched to its north and northeast. Overall, the track model guidance is tightly clustered with limited cross-track spread. There are more differences in the along-track direction, with the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean significantly faster than the rest of the models. The first NHC track forecast uses a consensus approach and generally falls between the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. Generally weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, very warm SSTs around 30C, and a strongly divergent upper-level environment are likely to support steady to rapid intensification (RI) during the next few days. The bulk of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with strengthening, particularly in the 24-72 h window when the shear falls below 10 kt. The DTOPS shows a 76 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h, and more than 60 percent of the Google Deep Mind ensemble members show the system becoming a major hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI between 36-72 h and has it reaching major hurricane status early next week, in agreement with the simple consensus (IVCN) and slightly below the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 9.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 9.3N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 10.5N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 14.0N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 15.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 17.2N 115.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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