000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290837 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 The depression has been holding steady overnight. While thunderstorm activity has increased since the previous advisory, recent scatterometer data has revealed that the surface winds remain generally unchanged. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also close to the other subjective and objective satellite estimates. The initial motion is 330/8 kt. The depression is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or so. Then an amplifying upper-level trough offshore Baja California should turn the system northward on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely because of the initial position, and it lies between the various consensus aids. The window for the cyclone to strengthen is gradually closing. The depression is still expected to become a tropical storm sometime later today, though the system only has about 36 hours of conducive environmental conditions. The NHC peak intensity has been lowered to 50 kt and is at the top of the intensity forecast guidance envelope. In a couple of days, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a dry and stable air mass. Global models predict the system will lose its organized convection at this point and the NHC forecast now shows the system becoming post-tropical in 60 h. Based on the latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.3N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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