Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Although the depression has a well-defined circulation, convection has fallen apart this afternoon, with the low-level circulation almost totally exposed. Satellite intensity estimates are falling again, so the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt using a blend of the objective and subjective values. The depression is moving eastward at about 12 kt. This general motion is expected during the next couple of days as the depression moves south of the remnants of Odalys and eventually starts to move on the southwestern side of Rachel's much larger circulation. The track forecast is shifted a little to the north, mostly based on a more precise initial positions from visible satellite images. Little change in intensity is shown for the depression due to moderate shear and plentiful dry mid-level air, somewhat countered by warming SSTs. The shear is forecast to increase somewhat along with a bit drier mid-level environment, which is likely to bring an end to any organized convection. Thus, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, similar to the latest global models simulated satellite data. I will just mention some of the guidance is showing some re-intensification on Thursday, but that is deemed unlikely due to the unfavorable environmental factors listed above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.2N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.3N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 15.3N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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