Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291451 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Satellite images indicate that the system well west-southwest of Baja California Sur (former Invest EP91) has had enough organized deep convection with a well-defined circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, consistent with an overnight scatterometer pass and a Dvorak 2.0 from TAFB. Although the system has become a tropical depression, the center is mostly exposed with moderate shear. There is a slight chance of the system reaching tropical storm intensity later today before it feels the cold wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow. The environment is expected to further dry out during the next couple of days with an increase in shear. These factors should cause the depression to weaken by late Wednesday and degenerate into a post- tropical cyclone by late Thursday. The NHC forecast is just above the model consensus. The depression is moving eastward at 8 kt. This general motion is expected for the next few days until dissipation while the cyclone remains embedded in westerly flow due to a northward-displaced near-equatorial trough, enhanced by both the strong El Nino event and western Hemisphere Madden-Julian Oscillation. The track is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and leans toward the HCCA corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.4N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Source link