Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
379 WTPZ43 KNHC 150235 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 The center of Tropical Depression Hernan has reformed since the previous advisory, with the system now initialized about 30 mi north of the previous track. The center reformation is evident on geostationary visible satellite imagery and supported by a recent Oceansat-3 scatterometer pass. This also positions Hernan closer to its active convection, which is limited to a small area in the northeast quadrant. Based on the subjective and objective satellite classifications, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass which sampled the northwestern quadrant, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is an uncertain 275/12 kt, and based primarily on visible satellite imagery over the past 4 to 6 h. This generally westward motion is expected to continue through the forecast period as the cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. Due to the center reformation, the new track forecast lies about 30 mi north of the previous forecast, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Moderate vertical wind shear and dry air are expected to continue to affect Hernan and lead to the system degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to continue westward for a few more days thereafter, before dissipating by 72 h. This is in agreement with the deterministic global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 16.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 16.6N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Pasch
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