Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
429 WTPZ43 KNHC 130251 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Scatterometer passes over the past day or so have indicated that Invest 99E has had a closed, well-defined circulation during that time, including a recent OSCAT pass. Deep convection has pulsed up and down over the past day, but has recently been persisting well-enough for the past 6 hours to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak fix from TAFB is 1.5/25 kt, but wind vectors from OSCAT, as well as the ASCAT pass from yesterday, suggest that it likely has winds near 30 kt, and that is the initial NHC intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 6 kt. As a trough near the west coast of the U.S. pulls away and some weak ridging builds back in to the north, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the southwest as it feels a tug from lower pressures toward the southwest of the system. The NHC forecast lies near, but slightly south of, the latest HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) model. The spread in the models is a little greater than average, so the confidence in the track forecast is a bit below average. The cyclone is experiencing moderate to strong westerly wind shear, mainly due to the aforementioned trough to the north and outflow from Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C. Therefore, very little strengthening is likely. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity of 35 kt in 12-24 hours, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance suite. Thereafter, although shear may decrease some as that trough pulls away, mid-level humidities are expected to decrease at the same time, and model guidance suggests there may not be much left of the cyclone by 48 h. The NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 48 h, but GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate it could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast. After that, model guidance shows the system gradually spinning down and dissipating in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.9N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.0N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z 15.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Source link