Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jun 06 2026
206 WTPZ41 KNHC 070236 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Amanda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 500 PM HST Sat Jun 06 2026 Amanda is quickly on the path to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Deep convection has remained sporadic and confined primarily to the western semicircle due to persistent east-southeasterly shear and dry mid-level air. Additionally, the exposed low-level circulation has become less defined within a broad low-cloud swirl. A recent scatterometer pass sampled winds of 25 to 30 kt north of the center, which aligns with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Amanda is moving toward the southwest, or 215/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge centered north of the cyclone is expected to remain the primary steering influence through the next several days, resulting in a continued southwestward to west-southwestward motion. The latest guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous advisory. Persistent east-southeasterly shear and dry mid-level air entrainment will continue to limit convective organization, despite the warm SSTs along the forecast track. Simulated satellite imagery from the dynamical models generally agrees in showing only occasional bursts of convection. Therefore, continued weakening is forecast, and Amanda is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. The remnant circulation should persist for a few additional days before dissipating by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 12.1N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.7N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 11.3N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 11.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 10.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/1200Z 10.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 10.2N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 9.7N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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