Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Subtropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Published Date and Time: 2026-10-21 16:46:00



Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026

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FONT15 KNHC 212046
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   2(28)   X(28)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)  23(57)   X(57)   X(57)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  41(49)   7(56)   X(56)   X(56)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  21(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   2( 2)  48(50)   8(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)  30(30)  17(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   6( 6)  82(88)   4(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   4( 4)  41(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X  42(42)  12(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X  10(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 63   3(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 48   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
ISLIP NY       34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE



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