Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 994

   Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...and northeast AR.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

   Valid 262357Z - 270100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of supercells with a history of producing
   tornadoes will continue eastward with a risk for strong to intense
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
   of supercells ongoing across southeastern MO within PDS Tornado
   Watch #320. Several of these storms have produced tornadoes over the
   past couple of hours. The environment ahead of these storms is
   strongly unstable with MLCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg which is very
   favorable for intense updrafts. Large ambient vorticity and enhanced
   low-level shear (ESRH >200 m2/s2) is present along a modified
   outflow boundary from southeast MO into northern AR and western
   TN/KY, supporting the potential for strong low-level mesocyclones.
   With STP values greater than 4, these storms will likely remain
   capable of strong to potentially intense tornadoes this evening.
   Eventual upscale growth is possible, but a significant tornado risk,
   along with very large hail and damaging winds remains likely for the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36708924 36578936 36468971 36479011 36509055 36549120
               36609150 36809158 37049155 37309134 37659046 37629039
               37468941 37118919 36708924