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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 994

Mesoscale Discussion 994
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...and northeast AR.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

   Valid 262357Z - 270100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of supercells with a history of producing
   tornadoes will continue eastward with a risk for strong to intense

   DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
   of supercells ongoing across southeastern MO within PDS Tornado
   Watch #320. Several of these storms have produced tornadoes over the
   past couple of hours. The environment ahead of these storms is
   strongly unstable with MLCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg which is very
   favorable for intense updrafts. Large ambient vorticity and enhanced
   low-level shear (ESRH >200 m2/s2) is present along a modified
   outflow boundary from southeast MO into northern AR and western
   TN/KY, supporting the potential for strong low-level mesocyclones.
   With STP values greater than 4, these storms will likely remain
   capable of strong to potentially intense tornadoes this evening.
   Eventual upscale growth is possible, but a significant tornado risk,
   along with very large hail and damaging winds remains likely for the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36708924 36578936 36468971 36479011 36509055 36549120
               36609150 36809158 37049155 37309134 37659046 37629039
               37468941 37118919 36708924 

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