Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 969

   Mesoscale Discussion 0969
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern New Mexico into West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032050Z - 032315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
   isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large
   hail this evening into the early overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery and lightning data depict
   continued thunderstorm development across high terrain areas and
   along cold pool boundaries across portions of western New Mexico,
   southeastern Arizona, and northern Mexico. Expectation is for this
   activity to gradually evolve into southern New Mexico and West Texas
   through this evening/afternoon as remaining inhibition (evident in
   latest objective analysis and the 18z EPZ observed sounding) erodes.
   The greatest potential for isolated severe through early this
   evening appears to exist across southern New Mexico and the Big Bend
   region of Texas where objective analysis and visible satellite
   suggest remaining inhibition is weaker. This potential should then
   gradually spread into the remainder of the discussion area (across
   West Texas) later in the evening as the stronger inhibition
   lingering across this area erodes and low-level lapse rates steepen.

   Latest guidance and RAP forecast soundings depict deepening boundary
   layer mixing through the evening amid continued insolation. This
   should yield modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles by
   this evening with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs of around
   2500-3000 m promoting the potential for isolated damaging wind
   gusts. Weak effective shear (generally around 20 kts or less) will
   largely preclude updraft organization, but some clustering/upscale
   growth is possible with any coalescing cold pools. Isolated large
   hail also cannot be ruled out with the most robust cores given steep
   mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8+ C/km sampled by the 18z EPZ sounding).
   Watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the limited
   magnitude/coverage of the severe threat.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29140282 30500349 31550416 32320471 32730504 33030530
               33180546 33240567 33300606 33330674 33290734 33220788
               33090844 32950879 32720900 32490899 32150901 31830892
               31500879 31280864 31210839 31220817 31410803 31600793
               31600660 31180608 30680540 30270490 29910482 29550466
               29230423 28980367 28800321 28820301 29140282 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN