Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 964

   Mesoscale Discussion 0964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

   Areas affected...Far northern Nebraska into central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

   Valid 022356Z - 030200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in proximity to an emerging MCV
   may periodically pose a threat for large hail and perhaps damaging
   downburst winds. However, the longevity and coverage of this threat
   is uncertain given poor environmental wind shear. Downstream watch
   issuance will most likely not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, regional radar imagery shows the
   gradual emergence of a weak MCV associated with a persistent
   convective cluster across south-central SD. New convection continues
   to develop in proximity to this feature and along a composite
   outflow boundary that is gradually pushing south. Despite this
   trend, MRMS data shows that attendant convection has been mostly
   short-lived (on the order of an hour or less) and only occasionally
   intensifying to severe limits. This is likely a result of
   diminishing mid and upper-level flow with southeastward extent that
   is modulating overall storm organization/longevity. Nonetheless,
   latest RAP mesoanalysis estimate suggest this MCV is approaching a
   regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE is upwards of around 2000
   J/kg. This, combined with increasing ascent on the southern fringe
   of the MCV/cold pool as the nocturnal jet intensifies, may support
   an increase in thunderstorms and potentially sporadic large hail and
   strong/severe downburst winds.  Given the poor kinematics, any
   severe threat will likely be localized and short lived, which should
   preclude the need for downstream watch issuance (though trends will
   continue to be monitored).

   ..Moore.. 06/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44240116 44550073 44920025 45049996 45089944 45019903
               44809886 44479870 44079873 43619898 43049968 42890032
               42780108 42800156 42860191 43100207 43250199 43360152
               43510126 43810114 44240116 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN