US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 964

   Mesoscale Discussion 0964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...311...

   Valid 260340Z - 260445Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308, 311 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for hail up to 2" in diameter, strong gusts, and
   perhaps a tornado continues across northeast Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized supercell continues to progress
   eastward across Osage County in northeast OK. Recent data from the
   INX VAD sampled over 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and over 400 m2/s2
   of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Strong buoyancy exists
   immediately downstream of this storm as well, but some decrease in
   the buoyancy is possible farther east into far northeast OK where
   preceding storms have resulted in a corridor of warmer and drier low
   to mid-level temperatures. Additionally, recent radar trends suggest
   this storm may be becoming a bit more outflow dominant. Even so,
   some additional reorganization is possible amd this storm is
   expected to remain intense, capable of producing very large hail up
   to 2" in diameter, strong gusts, and perhaps a tornado. A local
   extension in time of Tornado Watch 308 may be needed for Osage

   ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36509673 36909638 36889527 36579504 36109550 36129645

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