Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 963

   Mesoscale Discussion 0963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Far North-Central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...

   Valid 260316Z - 260415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308 continues.

   SUMMARY...An intense supercell capable of producing a strong tornado
   is expected to continue for at least the next hour over far
   north-central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an notable increase in
   intensity of the supercell over Montague and Cooke County in far
   north-central Texas. Echo tops now over 60 kft, with a very strong
   low-level circulation observed as well. Recent mesoanalysis
   estimates that effective helicity is over 800 m2/s2 and effective
   shear is over 70 kt near this supercell. This intense shear coupled
   with very strong buoyancy (i.e. 4500 J/kg) is resulting in STP
   values from 16 to 18. Given the supercellular mode, a strong tornado
   is possible within this environment. An extension in time for
   Tornado Watch 308 may be needed.

   ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33389767 33839765 33879699 33619660 33259692 33389767