Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021844Z - 022045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon. Supercells will be possible with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Daytime heating is occurring across portions of eastern
Wyoming into the Dakotas ahead of the boundary and near the surface
trough. Along the front, mainly sub-severe thunderstorm activity is
ongoing across the western Dakotas, though a few severe storms have
developed within the warm sector. Across North Dakota, strong
daytime heating has eroded MLCIN with temperatures climbing into the
low to mid 80s. Cumulus has increased across central North Dakota.
Additional isolated supercell development may occur, with potential
for large to very large hail and damaging wind. Through time as
ascent increases with the upper-low and further heating occurs,
storms along the front will increase in intensity. Largely boundary
parallel shear will encourage clustering and upscale growth with an
increase in damaging wind potential.
Further south and west, cumulus is increasing across the high
terrain in southeastern Wyoming. Temperatures here are cooler
beneath filtered heating through mid-level cloud cover. It is likely
with additional heating and increasing mid-level ascent over the
next 1-2 hours, thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
intensity along the cold front and also develop further west along
the high terrain. Shear profiles will support supercells initially,
though boundary parallel shear increases with northern extent into
ND (which may lead to tendency for clustering/upscale growth). Steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for large to
very large hail and damaging wind. Winds across western SD will
become steadily southeasterly with the developing surface low this
afternoon, which may support some enhancement of the low-level
hodograph curvature and increase in tornado risk with discrete
supercells. Through time, the front will shift eastward with
tendency for clustering/upscale growth into the evening and shift to
primarily a damaging wind risk through time.
One or more watches will be needed to cover these potential threats
this afternoon.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42350526 44260423 45740343 46340299 48060198 48930123
49090022 49089897 49019846 48739809 48139801 46109935
44120078 42570195 41420322 41170447 41250480 42350526
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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