|
|
| Mesoscale Discussion 946 | |
| < Previous MD | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0946 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...Southern Missouri and far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304... Valid 250246Z - 250445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue along a cold front across south-central Missouri and along the MO/AR border for the next 1-2 hours. These storms may periodically intensify to severe limits and pose a large hail/damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop along a cold front as it migrates into south-central MO. Although the observed 00 UTC SGF sounding sampled an very supportive environment for severe convection (MLCAPE nearly 3000 J/kg with a 0-6 km BWD value of 45 knots), convection has largely struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to a combination of diminishing forcing for ascent along the front and the onset of nocturnal stabilization. However, a few stronger updraft pulses have been noted over the past 30 minutes and have intensified to severe limits based on MRMS vertical ice and MESH estimates. Given weak ascent within an otherwise favorable environment, the expectation through 04 UTC is for continued development of weak convection with occasional stronger updraft pulses that may intensify to severe limits. Unless a more robust cell can develop some degree of mid-level rotation and/or a sufficiently intense cold pool, storm longevity should be limited. Consequently, the severe hail/wind threat should remain somewhat isolated as storms move into south-central MO and along the MO/AR border. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36289441 37009320 37179266 37139211 37099164 36879156 36719163 36559191 36359258 36169321 36089356 36099395 36149419 36289441 |
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |
|