Mesoscale Discussion 0094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7... Valid 130659Z - 130900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will likely persist across parts of southeast Alabama over the next few hours. Although the threat will move into parts of southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, the overall threat is expected to decrease with time. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely downstream from the current watch. DISCUSSION...A subtle mid-level trough is currently analyzed across eastern Alabama. At the surface, a front is advancing across the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, a broken line of organized storms is located from far southern Alabama extending northeastward into north-central Georgia. Surface dewpoints along and ahead of the Alabama portion of the line are in the upper 60s to near 70 F, which is contributing to MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range, estimated by the RAP. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP from Fort Rucker, Alabama has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity has 450 m2/s2. This environment should continue to support a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat over the next few hours. However, as the mid-level trough an the associated low-level jet moves away from the region, the threat is expected to gradually decrease in coverage. The line will eventually affect southwest Georgia and the central Florida Panhandle late tonight, but the threat is expected to become too isolated for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30678496 30438533 30368580 30428625 30768655 31288660 31928614 32178587 32698532 33038482 33128438 33048389 32888362 32598350 32018361 31348413 30678496
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