Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 939

   Mesoscale Discussion 0939
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

   Areas affected...Much of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012041Z - 012315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
   potential into this evening. Primary concerns will be severe wind
   gusts and large hail. Timing of a potential watch remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus has been gradually attempting to
   deepen within a zone of confluent/upslope low-level flow in western
   KS, though weak/negligible large-scale forcing for ascent and
   lingering inhibition have limited deeper development thus far.
   However, continued attempts may be eroding the cap and could support
   isolated storm development over the next couple hours. 

   The GLD VWP is sampling deep/enhanced southeasterly flow veering to
   southwesterly midlevel winds (around 40 kt of effective shear). 
   While development within the confluence zone still remains
   uncertain, this wind profile coupled with steep deep-layer lapse
   rates and a warm/moist PBL will conditionally support organized
   storms to include supercells. Any storms that can develop/mature
   will pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts, though a brief
   tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the presence of enhanced
   streamwise vorticity for any established storms. 

   Additional thunderstorms evolving out of southeast CO may eventually
   move into this environment as well, which would also be capable of
   severe wind gusts and hail. While the overall convective scenario
   remains a bit uncertain, the area is being monitored for a possible
   watch issuance.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   39690163 39840097 39800007 39579951 39149916 38409921
               37829992 37500090 37490165 37660195 38210210 38720212
               39320202 39690163 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN