Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...portions of central and northeast Texas...eastern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241848Z - 242015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and
increase in coverage through the afternoon. Very large hail (some
stones possibly reaching 4 inches in diameter) and severe gusts are
the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes could also occur. A
WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus are gradually deepening ahead of a cold front
sagging southward across central OK, and a dryline over central TX.
Ahead of these boundaries, surface temperatures are warming well
into the 80s F amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates are overspreading this very moist, deep boundary layer,
contributing to 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE already in place over much of
eastern OK into northeastern and central TX. MLCAPE may peak to 5000
J/kg in spots, and when considering elongated hodographs
(contributing to 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear), splitting
supercells are expected. These supercells may become quite intense,
fostering prolonged periods of hail suspension, perhaps allowing
some stones to grow up to 4 inches in diameter. Severe gusts may
also occur with the stronger storm cores. Limited directional and
speed shear in the lowest few km suggests that the overall tornado
threat may be limited. However, robust right-moving supercells could
produce tornadoes given the extreme instability, especially if any
storms manage to traverse meso-gamma scale boundaries. A WW issuance
will be needed in the next couple of hours to address the impending
severe threat.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31429623 31149669 30889732 30809787 30899825 31019842
31319869 33289772 35739623 36459534 36309488 35439454
34049483 32219580 31429623