Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 924

   Mesoscale Discussion 0924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

   Areas affected...Central to southeast Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312218Z - 010015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Pulse convection developing across central into
   southeastern Arkansas is showing signs of fully realizing very high
   buoyancy across the region. Strong to severe wet downbursts appear
   possible, but watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating across central to
   southeastern AR over the past couple of hours, but recent MRMS data
   shows echo tops beginning to approach 60 kft - a notable increase
   compared to prior convection. Intense updraft pulses are
   concurrently noted in GOES 1-minute imagery and suggests that
   convection is beginning to fully realize the highly buoyant
   environment (MLCAPE upwards of 4000 J/kg) as temperatures reach
   their daytime highs in the low 90s. Observed dewpoint depressions
   and recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates also suggest low-level lapse
   rates are approaching 8 C/km, which when combined with the ample
   buoyancy will support wet downbursts capable of producing strong to
   severe gusts. Very weak flow through much of the column (as noted in
   the KLZK VWP) will promote short-lived pulse convection, though
   additional thunderstorm development along any outflow boundaries
   appears probable given the very buoyant environment.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35469214 35179143 34779108 34429099 33979104 33569133
               33269180 33159222 33209263 33449294 33769316 34159322
               34639317 35099297 35409259 35459224 35469214 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN