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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 916

Mesoscale Discussion 916
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0916
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of western/southwestern Oklahoma...western
   north Texas...the western Low Rolling Plains...and the Edwards

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 295...

   Valid 232300Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues.

   SUMMARY...Discrete supercells, moving east off a dryline, from
   southwestern OK through the Edwards Plateau of TX remain capable of
   producing very large hail over 2.00" in diameter, damaging wind
   gusts over 70 mph, and tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells have developed early this
   evening along a dryline, and should maintain their intensity over
   the next several hours. These thunderstorms have developed in an
   environment with steep mid-level lapse rates ranging from 7 to 8
   C/km south to north respectively. Surface temperatures in the upper
   80s to 90s along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are yielding a
   narrow axis of extreme buoyancy just ahead of the dryline. Further
   east, a more stable troposphere is noted via visible satellite
   imagery behind several outflow boundaries and convective debris.

   Ambient 0-1 km SRH can be estimated via SJT VAD and current
   mesoanalysis to be near 100-200 m2/s2. A corridor of stronger SSE
   surface flow juxtaposed with the instability axis, a slow increase
   in the LLJ through the evening, and enhanced backing near the
   dryline circulation across SW OK may lead to locally enhanced low
   level shear/a more favorable tornadic environment. In addition, very
   large CAPE through the hail growth zone (OUN 20Z observed sounding)
   and effective shear > 50 kt will continue to support very large
   hail. Localized severe damaging wind gusts will also remain possible

   ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31560032 32920032 34770013 35619988 35799897 35529873
               34619885 33489904 32249915 31609887 31159859 30999870
               30949885 30689918 30719961 30840012 31120031 31560032 

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