Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 912

   Mesoscale Discussion 0912
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

   Valid 302353Z - 310200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have struggled to maintain intensity within
   a weakly forced, but otherwise favorable convective environment.
   While storm coverage and intensity are uncertain due to recent
   trends, additional thunderstorm development appears possible through
   mid-evening based on GOES imagery.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells across the far eastern TX
   Panhandle have struggled to maintain intensity over the past hour
   with both cells largely dissipated as of 23:50 UTC. The lackluster
   sustenance of these cells is likely owing to weak forcing for ascent
   across the region as the primary upper-level trough axis shifts away
   from the region to the north. However, there are hints in recent
   GOES imagery that additional convection is possible in the coming
   hours. Low-level water-vapor imagery reveals a subtle ribbon of
   vorticity spreading east across the TX Panhandle towards the
   dryline, which may bolster ascent to some degree over the next hour.
   Some hints of this ascent are already noted as a few deeper
   congestus clouds develop along the dryline to the west of the
   weakening cells. Additionally, a cluster of elevated cumulus south
   of the Lawton, OK area has seen steady, albeit slow, growth over the
   past hour. Confidence is low that either of these regions will see
   substantial convective intensification, but recent RRFS solutions
   hint at isolated thunderstorms through roughly 04 UTC within an
   otherwise favorable convective environment.

   ..Moore.. 05/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34150051 34450071 34690067 35050044 35180031 35340005
               35419973 35379911 35259860 35059822 34719798 34449789
               34109798 33959824 33899870 33859906 33839980 33890039
               34150051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN