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Mesoscale Discussion 907 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231304Z - 231500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A strong gust or two -- or marginal hailstone -- will remain possible across central/southern Arkansas over the next couple of hours. Marginal/isolated nature of the risk should preclude WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms over southwestern Arkansas evolving a bit upscale linearly, with some bowing evident -- suggesting an at least somewhat-organized cold pool. Flow through the lower troposphere remains moderate/southwesterly, and thus not overly supporting well-organized storms. Additionally the morning LZK RAOB reveals an anticipated/nocturnally induced weakly stable surface-based layer. These factors should act to limit overall wind risk, but with a stronger gust or two possible. Marginal hail near severe levels may occur with a stronger updraft or two. Overall however, given limited local risk apparent at this time, WW issuance is not expected at this time. ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33809426 34009366 34439339 34809272 35199193 34979133 34209118 33479147 33179213 33409400 33809426 |
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