Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 9

   Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Areas affected...portions of east Texas...southern Arkansas...and
   northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051508Z - 051745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through
   midday. A risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and
   isolated small hail is expected from East Texas into northwest
   Louisiana and southern Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has already developed this
   morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front extending across
   eastern OK into northeast and central Texas. Ahead of the front,
   low-level moisture is increasing on southerly low-level flow across
   the Sabine Valley. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s F are noted in
   surface observations from just south of Shreveport southward to the
   Gulf coast. As a warm front draped across southwest AR into central
   LA lifts northward through early afternoon, destabilization is
   expected to increase with north and eastward extent.

   Regional VAD wind profiles and morning soundings show strong
   vertical shear is already in place, with effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 35 kt noted. Furthermore, enlarged, favorably curved
   low-level hodographs are evident, aided by an intense low-level jet
   near 50 kt overspreading the region. This will support organized,
   rotating storms capable of damaging gusts and tornadoes. 

   Given the fairly quick eastward-moving cold front, linear forcing
   mechanisms will likely favor continued development of a QLCS just
   ahead of the front. Strong forcing and increasing low-level moisture
   will also aid in erosion of capping south of the warm front. Some
   potential exists for semi-discrete cell development ahead of the
   QLCS in low-level confluence bands. These bands are already evident
   in morning visible satellite imagery and region radar data. Isolated
   convection has already started to develop within these bands near
   the Sabine River. Any discrete supercells developing within the
   deeper moisture in the warm sector wedge will pose a risk for all
   severe hazards. Given current trends, a tornado watch will likely be
   needed within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31999566 31279609 30819613 30379598 30079530 30079472
               30349403 31369258 32689210 33419220 33899288 34059359
               33669450 32249550 31999566