US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 888

   Mesoscale Discussion 0888
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221037Z - 221230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development is forecast to increase over the next
   couple of hours, with a few stronger storms likely to evolve with
   time.  Risk for large hail is expected with a few of the strongest
   cells, which could require eventual consideration of WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated convection just
   beginning to develop across parts of Oklahoma, supporting consistent
   signal in successive HRRR runs that an early-morning convective
   event will evolve across the Oklahoma vicinity.  The convection
   appears to be occurring near the 850mb manifestation of the
   low-level baroclinic zone, as air ascends isentropically atop to the
   boundary to its LFC.

   Model data indicates abundant CAPE atop a surface-based stable layer
   north of the surface baroclinic zone, that currently stretches from
   near RUE (Russellville AR) southwestward to near MEZ (Mena AR), and
   then west-southwestward across southern Oklahoma to near FDR
   (Frederick, OK).  Given the thermodynamic support, expect a few
   vigorous updrafts to evolve, with intensity/organization aided by
   slightly veering/steadily increasing southwesterly flow with height
   through the cloud-bearing layer.  Given this potential for a few
   elevated supercells, attendant risk for large hail is expected to
   evolve.  While likely to remain isolated, storms could become
   sufficient in coverage to warrant potential WW issuance in the 1 to
   2 hour time frame.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34809941 35149913 36389702 36809504 36549382 36039338
               35159403 34469665 34459857 34809941 

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