Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262223Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may progress across the
international border by around 8 PM EDT, with continuing potential
for a few strong gusts before weakening further thereafter.
DISCUSSION...The most prominent thunderstorm activity, within a
pre-frontal convective band now advancing to the southeast of the
St. Lawrence Valley, appears to be propagating a bit slower and to
the right of the 50-60 kt deep-layer westerly ambient mean flow, but
still around 40 kt. With this continuing motion, storms are on pace
to progress across the international border, coincident with a broad
area of lower pressure to the south of the primary surface cyclone,
between 23-00Z. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that the modestly deep
mixed boundary layer ahead of activity may remain sufficiently
unstable to support convection capable of producing a few strong
surface gusts into portions of northern Maine, before storms weaken
further with diminishing severe weather potential thereafter.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 46337223 46647119 46907038 47116938 46486815 45816994
45777058 46337223
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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