Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 848

   Mesoscale Discussion 0848
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...north-central and northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266...

   Valid 200642Z - 200845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk will continue across portions of
   north-central and northeastern Oklahoma -- largely within WW 266.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong/locally
   severe storms ongoing across north-central and into northeastern
   Oklahoma -- in the far southeastern corner of soon-to-expire WW 265
   and western portions of WW 266.  

   Storms continue to regenerate on the southwestern flank of the
   convection, resulting in a slow southward drift to the convection. 
   This is occurring as a strong (near 60 kt) southwesterly low-level
   jet continues to provide a feed of high theta-e air atop low-level
   convective outflow.  

   With deep-layer shear favorable for organized/rotating storms,
   expect local/isolated -- but all-hazard -- severe risk to persist
   for some time.  As WW 265 expires, and as storms creep southward
   with time, local WW extensions may be needed to cover the
   persistent/evolving risk.

   ..Goss.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36199815 36549775 36709727 36379579 35889519 35559583
               35489694 35659812 35909821 36199815