Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 836

   Mesoscale Discussion 0836
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

   Valid 231705Z - 231900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for wind damage will continue into central
   Mississippi this afternoon. Brief tornadoes also may occur,
   particularly close the the MCV circulation.

   DISCUSSION...Filtered surface heating continues ahead of an
   MCV-driven convective line. The strongest surface heating has
   occurred in central Mississippi where temperatures are in the low
   80s F. KPOE VAD shows around 40 kt of flow within the lowest 3 km
   after the MCV passed. This should promote at least some threat for
   wind damage as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of
   the activity. The southern extent of the threat is the most
   uncertain given the influence of convection along the central Gulf
   Coast. While overall low-level shear remains weak, KPOE VAD did show
   an increase to around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH just ahead of the MCV.
   Brief tornadoes remain possible this afternoon.

   ..Wendt.. 05/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31498955 31319002 31219080 31079161 31179188 31639207
               32039263 32399305 32529298 33269158 33379037 33098946
               32638910 32198922 31498955 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH